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Management report

Polmix Distribution

Sales report & outlook · contract logistics and road transport · 312 FTE

Q3 2026

Revenue

PLN 248.4M

EBITDA margin

14.2%

Headcount

312 FTE

Avg B2B deal

PLN 86.3K

DSO

47 days

1 Overview

Polmix Distribution closed Q3 2026 with PLN 248.4M revenue (+11.8% YoY) — the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. EBITDA margin held at 14.2% despite cost pressure in domestic transport. Last-mile is the fastest-growing line (+34% YoY) and has reached the scale that justifies a separate P&L.

P25 · Conservative

212PLN M

Q4 2026 forecast — lower planning range

P50 · Base

258PLN M

Mid-range — pipeline continuation

P75 · Aspirational

291PLN M

Full launch of the Prague hub

Revenue

248.4 PLN M

+11.8% YoY

3 consecutive quarters above +11%

EBITDA margin

14.2 %

−0.3pp QoQ

Cost pressure on domestic transport

DSO

47 days

+4 days QoQ

B2B receivables cycle lengthening

Last-mile rev

19.9 PLN M

+34% YoY

Candidate to become a standalone segment from Q1 2027

✦

Insight

Three consecutive quarters of revenue growth above 11% YoY — the B2B pipeline is consolidating, not a one-off peak.

2 Revenue structure

The revenue mix shows transport dominance (71% combined), but the dynamics are concentrated in last-mile and warehousing — that's where the business model is shifting.

Revenue mix · Q3 2026

Domestic transport 42%
International transport 29%
Warehousing 17%
Last-mile 8%
Other 4%

The Q2 → Q3 revenue change is +PLN 26M. The bridge below breaks it down by driver: new contracts, churn of one large retail client, tariff indexation, and a positive mix shift toward higher-margin services.

Revenue bridge Q2 → Q3 (PLN M)

Start Up Down End

✦

Insight

+PLN 18M from new logos = 68% of the growth — two large deals (e-commerce in DE and B2B distribution in CZ) contribute PLN 14M combined. Without them Q3 would only be +PLN 8M.

3 Benchmark & variance

Monthly revenue trend (last 12 months) — Polmix consistently above peer median, but in the last 4 months slightly below its own P50 forecast:

Revenue · monthly trend (PLN M)

Polmix Peer median Forecast P50

Revenue is growing, but EBITDA margin is drifting down — a signal that volume growth is costing more than expected:

Revenue vs EBITDA margin · last 8 months

Revenue (PLN M) EBITDA margin (%)

Revenue Q2 vs Q3 · peer group (PLN M)

Q2 2026 Q3 2026

Peer group · Q3 2026 profiles

Company	Revenue Q3	YoY growth	EBITDA %	FTE
Polmix Distribution	248.4 M	+11.8%	14.2%	312
Acme Freight	201.2 M	+6.4%	9.8%	287
Cargo Holdings	283.1 M	+4.1%	16.0%	401
Vortex Lines	174.0 M	+8.9%	11.3%	198
PolarBox	139.2 M	+13.7%	7.1%	168

Against plan, only domestic transport and "Other" are under budget. Last-mile blew past plan by 37%:

Actual vs Plan · Q3 2026

Revenue (PLN M) · vs Plan

Item	Actual	Plan	ΔAbs	Δ%
Domestic transport	104,3	108	-3,7	-3.4%
International transport	72	68	+4	+5.9%
Warehousing	42,2	40	+2,2	+5.5%
Last-mile	19,9	14,5	+5,4	+37.2%
Other	10	11	-1	-9.1%

✦

Insight

Polmix has the highest YoY growth in the peer group (+11.8%) with the 2nd-best margin (14.2%) — the "premium" segment position is consolidating.

4 Scenarios & drivers

Q4 2026 forecast

Bearish

212 PLN M

EUR/PLN stagnation + B2B volume drop in December

Base

258 PLN M

Continued current pipeline + seasonal peak

Bullish

291 PLN M

Successful launch of the last-mile Prague hub in November

Key scenario drivers

↑ EUR/PLN exchange rate

±PLN 8M

Every 0.10 PLN move ≈ PLN 8M in international revenue

↓ Fuel prices

−PLN 12M at +15%

Tariff indexation lags by 4–6 weeks

↑ Last-mile Prague capacity

+PLN 18M

Full hub launch = net-new revenue

− B2B churn (top-20)

−PLN 3M to +PLN 2M

Top-20 clients retained through 2027

↑ Warehouse headcount (peak)

+PLN 4M

Additional 30 FTE in November expands seasonal capacity

✦

Insight

Drivers are asymmetric: last-mile upside (+18) is larger than the realistic FX downside (±8). We're holding Base with an option on Bullish.

5 Conclusions & recommendation

✦

Insight

Last-mile is growing 34% YoY at 8% of revenue — past the threshold that justifies a standalone segment from Q1 2027.

✦

Insight

International margin is rising despite volume — a sign of better pricing, not just mix. We have pricing power in the EU.

✦

Insight

DSO 47 days (+4 QoQ) — a mild deterioration, but the top-5 clients are still on time. Review the top-20 debtors individually before Q4 close.

ⓘ

Info

The report is based on data from the ERP + the WMS, consolidated as of 2026-09-30. Peer benchmarks come from publicly available competitor annual reports for Q3 2026.

⚠

Warning

DSO lengthening by 4 days while revenue grows may mask collection problems in 1–2 large contracts. Recommended quick review of the top-20 receivables before Q4 close.

?

Recommendation · CONDITIONAL

Spin off last-mile as a standalone segment from Q1 2027

Last-mile is growing 34% YoY at 8% of revenue — the threshold where standalone reporting starts to make sense. Requires closing the Prague hub launch (capex PLN 4M) and stabilising margin above 10%.

Action items

1

Validate last-mile demand in Czechia (3 pilot accounts)

BD by: 2026-07-15
2

Approve capex of PLN 4M for the Prague hub

CFO by: 2026-08-01
3

Set up a separate P&L in the ERP + re-map accounts

Controller by: 2026-12-15
4

Communicate with stakeholders (board + bank)

CEO by: 2026-09-30

1 Overview

Polmix Distribution closed Q3 2026 with PLN 248.4M revenue (+11.8% YoY) — the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. EBITDA margin held at 14.2% despite cost pressure in domestic transport. Last-mile is the fastest-growing line (+34% YoY) and has reached the scale that justifies a separate P&L.

P25 · Conservative

212PLN M

Q4 2026 forecast — lower planning range

P50 · Base

258PLN M

Mid-range — pipeline continuation

P75 · Aspirational

291PLN M

Full launch of the Prague hub

Revenue

248.4 PLN M

+11.8% YoY

3 consecutive quarters above +11%

EBITDA margin

14.2 %

−0.3pp QoQ

Cost pressure on domestic transport

DSO

47 days

+4 days QoQ

B2B receivables cycle lengthening

Last-mile rev

19.9 PLN M

+34% YoY

Candidate to become a standalone segment from Q1 2027

✦

Insight

Three consecutive quarters of revenue growth above 11% YoY — the B2B pipeline is consolidating, not a one-off peak.

2 Revenue structure

The revenue mix shows transport dominance (71% combined), but the dynamics are concentrated in last-mile and warehousing — that's where the business model is shifting.

Revenue mix · Q3 2026

Domestic transport 42%
International transport 29%
Warehousing 17%
Last-mile 8%
Other 4%

The Q2 → Q3 revenue change is +PLN 26M. The bridge below breaks it down by driver: new contracts, churn of one large retail client, tariff indexation, and a positive mix shift toward higher-margin services.

Revenue bridge Q2 → Q3 (PLN M)

Start Up Down End

✦

Insight

+PLN 18M from new logos = 68% of the growth — two large deals (e-commerce in DE and B2B distribution in CZ) contribute PLN 14M combined. Without them Q3 would only be +PLN 8M.

3 Benchmark & variance

Monthly revenue trend (last 12 months) — Polmix consistently above peer median, but in the last 4 months slightly below its own P50 forecast:

Revenue · monthly trend (PLN M)

Polmix Peer median Forecast P50

Revenue is growing, but EBITDA margin is drifting down — a signal that volume growth is costing more than expected:

Revenue vs EBITDA margin · last 8 months

Revenue (PLN M) EBITDA margin (%)

Revenue Q2 vs Q3 · peer group (PLN M)

Q2 2026 Q3 2026

Peer group · Q3 2026 profiles

Company	Revenue Q3	YoY growth	EBITDA %	FTE
Polmix Distribution	248.4 M	+11.8%	14.2%	312
Acme Freight	201.2 M	+6.4%	9.8%	287
Cargo Holdings	283.1 M	+4.1%	16.0%	401
Vortex Lines	174.0 M	+8.9%	11.3%	198
PolarBox	139.2 M	+13.7%	7.1%	168

Against plan, only domestic transport and "Other" are under budget. Last-mile blew past plan by 37%:

Actual vs Plan · Q3 2026

Revenue (PLN M) · vs Plan

Item	Actual	Plan	ΔAbs	Δ%
Domestic transport	104,3	108	-3,7	-3.4%
International transport	72	68	+4	+5.9%
Warehousing	42,2	40	+2,2	+5.5%
Last-mile	19,9	14,5	+5,4	+37.2%
Other	10	11	-1	-9.1%

✦

Insight

Polmix has the highest YoY growth in the peer group (+11.8%) with the 2nd-best margin (14.2%) — the "premium" segment position is consolidating.

4 Scenarios & drivers

Q4 2026 forecast

Bearish

212 PLN M

EUR/PLN stagnation + B2B volume drop in December

Base

258 PLN M

Continued current pipeline + seasonal peak

Bullish

291 PLN M

Successful launch of the last-mile Prague hub in November

Key scenario drivers

↑ EUR/PLN exchange rate

±PLN 8M

Every 0.10 PLN move ≈ PLN 8M in international revenue

↓ Fuel prices

−PLN 12M at +15%

Tariff indexation lags by 4–6 weeks

↑ Last-mile Prague capacity

+PLN 18M

Full hub launch = net-new revenue

− B2B churn (top-20)

−PLN 3M to +PLN 2M

Top-20 clients retained through 2027

↑ Warehouse headcount (peak)

+PLN 4M

Additional 30 FTE in November expands seasonal capacity

✦

Insight

Drivers are asymmetric: last-mile upside (+18) is larger than the realistic FX downside (±8). We're holding Base with an option on Bullish.

5 Conclusions & recommendation

✦

Insight

Last-mile is growing 34% YoY at 8% of revenue — past the threshold that justifies a standalone segment from Q1 2027.

✦

Insight

International margin is rising despite volume — a sign of better pricing, not just mix. We have pricing power in the EU.

✦

Insight

DSO 47 days (+4 QoQ) — a mild deterioration, but the top-5 clients are still on time. Review the top-20 debtors individually before Q4 close.

ⓘ

Info

The report is based on data from the ERP + the WMS, consolidated as of 2026-09-30. Peer benchmarks come from publicly available competitor annual reports for Q3 2026.

⚠

Warning

DSO lengthening by 4 days while revenue grows may mask collection problems in 1–2 large contracts. Recommended quick review of the top-20 receivables before Q4 close.

?

Recommendation · CONDITIONAL

Spin off last-mile as a standalone segment from Q1 2027

Last-mile is growing 34% YoY at 8% of revenue — the threshold where standalone reporting starts to make sense. Requires closing the Prague hub launch (capex PLN 4M) and stabilising margin above 10%.

Action items

1

Validate last-mile demand in Czechia (3 pilot accounts)

BD by: 2026-07-15
2

Approve capex of PLN 4M for the Prague hub

CFO by: 2026-08-01
3

Set up a separate P&L in the ERP + re-map accounts

Controller by: 2026-12-15
4

Communicate with stakeholders (board + bank)

CEO by: 2026-09-30